The 12 Pain Scenarios

The numbers look fine, but I don't trust what I'm seeing.

• Early-stage institutional stress
• Human behavior diverging from metrics
• Leadership intuition with no proof

We're about to make a decision that we can't unwind.

• Acquisitions
• Capital allocation
• Strategy pivots

We keep missing timing, not logic.

• ALCO
• Credit cycles
• Expansion / contraction errors

This deal should be moving - but it's stuck.

• PE sourcing
• Strategic partnerships
• Institutional sales

We don't know who actually controls this decision.

• Boards
• ICs
• Family offices
• Partner-led firms

Everyone agrees publicly, but I can feel internal misalignment.

• Executive teams
• Roll-ups
• Bank leadership

We're flying blind outside our walls.

• Counterparties
• Borrowers
• Acquisition targets

We're late to things we used to see early.

• Mature institutions
• Scaling platforms
• Transport operators

Our advisors are optimizing optics, not outcomes.

• IB decks
• Consultants
• Traditional analytics

We can't tell if this target is ready - or just tired.

• Roll-ups
• Founder-led businesses
• Succession scenarios

Human behavior is now the constraint - not capital.

• Transport
• Credit
• Operations-heavy institutions

If this goes wrong, it will be public.

• Reputation risk
• Regulatory exposure
• Board confidence